Leadership change in Finnish election; Räsänen re-elected

The Finnish people are done with the Marin government. Although her Socialdemocratic party won three seats compared to four years earlier, that was not enough to win Sunday’s national elections. Instead, the liberal-conservative National Coalition Party is projected to win the elections and enter the 200-seat parliament with 48 seats. The right-wing Finns Party likely gains 46 seats.

Although there is quite some difference between the number of seats won, the overall support of these three parties is all within one percentage point. The top parties are the same as after the last election, but the leading party has changed, and the winner of the previous election, SDP, has fallen to third place.

According to Politico, fears about rising public debt, a deep-seated concern in Finland, appeared to have undermined Marin’s prospects with NCP leader Petteri Orpo’s messaging on fiscal discipline winning voters to his side. “This was a big win,” Orpo told supporters as the end of the vote count neared. “Our message has got through, the support is there, and Finns believe in the National Coalition Party.”

A large part of Marin’s government’s working time was spent on the pandemic and managing Finland’s security amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, in the last four years, the government also worked on the emancipation of trans people and loosened abortion legislation.

Psalm 100

The Christian Democrats (Kristillisdemokraatit, KD), meanwhile, retain their five seats. One of these seats comes from the Häme constituency, thus allowing a return of Päivi Räsänen to the Eduskunta. That was not certain before Sunday. While bookmakers labelled the chances of Räsänen’s return as ‘shaky’, Räsänen herself placed her fate in God’s hands.

Räsänen entered the Finnish parliament with nearly 7,000 votes. That is an increase of almost 350 votes compared to 2019. Reacting, Räsänen expressed gratitude for the election win. “The words of Psalm 100 are still on my mind: “The Lord is good! His steadfast love endures forever, and His faithfulness to all generations.” I trust in this, and I will work for the best of my loved ones!”

Räsänen is an internationally well-known figure, with the ongoing court case about her expressions about the Christian sexual ethics. She has been in parliament since 1995.

Coalition

Petteri Orpo, the leader of the National Coalition Party, will now get a chance to form a new government. He will likely have to choose between a coalition with Riikka Purra’s nationalist Finns Party or reaching an agreement with Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats. Earlier, Marin excluded the possibility of her party forming a coalition with the Finns Party, which she has accused of making openly racist statements.

According to Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen, a professor of political science, the Christian Democrats (with five seats) and the liberal RKP party (with nine seats) could be the kingmakers in the upcoming government negotiations. “If a basic bourgeois government is sought, KD could probably join such a coalition”, Kestilä-Kekkonen said to the Finnish broadcaster Yle. In an interview with CNE, KD’s Päivi Räsanen stated that her party does not exclude any parties in coalition talks and is ready to govern.

Räsänen seat shaky in Finnish elections

31-03-2023

Marin

In international media, the focus is mainly on Marin's loss. The BBC headlined that Marin lost to the Conservatives. According to the Swedish Aftonbladet, the "rather a colourless politician" Orpo forces "superstar" Marin away.

Germany is also particularly focused on the loss of Marin. The tabloid Bild headlines with "Election shock for Sanna Marin", while Der Spiegel analyses that Finland will likely move to the right, which may lead to Marin going abroad. According to rumours, she might be heading to Brussels soon, Der Spiegel writes.